A semi-official Syrian social media page tried to dampen Syrian “popular” outrage at not finishing the offensive in Idlib, pushing out Turkish backed and other extremists “pocketed” there. The gist is that despite this we don’t trust the Turks”
As it says: “Many of you are not happy with the Command’s decision to unilaterally and temporary pausing the operations north and allowing international agreements to take its course again.
Some think its “beating a dead horse” and the Turks cannot be trusted, and you are right they can’t be trusted. However, this time the Syrian command took the initiative holding all offensive action for reasons that are to be clear in the few days/weeks to come.”
Are the circumstances different because the West fails to talk about these things carrying about as if its another page in power-politic “horse-trading”? Certainly in today’s multi-polar reality everyone has a finger in the region’s energy deposits, and the geo-strategic points of interest it holds, or at least wants to.
As this is obviously the case, there has been immense “viscosity” among regional and international players in the last ten years. Terrorists have become democratic forces for some, former allies have become enemies, and their is no end to the tricks and forces being brought to play, this with the aid of modern technology, have made any predictabilityof actor behavior, beyond the short term, impossible. Every day’s analysis is just a picture of that day.
The historian of the future will be baffled by the vastly numerous turns of events that have taken place in the last decade.Yet of all these actors, one is consistent in its inconsistency: Turkey. All others have made mid-term commitments during this time, others have not betrayed good friends (Putin-Assad), others steadfastly remain enemies.
This is not just a geo-strategic game in which Turkey is embroiled just for geopolitical purposes. Geo-politics usually transcends intra-national and ethnic problems, but, when generations have been reared in a non-democratic society in which the average citizen has never had any love for democratic institutions, and has instead based socio-political mobility on patron-client relationships and the repression of the state, one may expect a different, almost messianic, attitude.
The Turkish regime has already begun persecuting Syrians in Constantinople. It seems Turkey is also releasing immigrant flows in the Aegean, and Greece may be faced, yet again, with an asymmetrical threat. One may expect this to increase.
During “turbulent times” in Turkey’s recent past tens of thousands have tended to vanish, one way, or another. Turkey knows how to turn people into migrants, and how to use migrant flows. This time such phenomena are one of Turkey’s hybrid warfare weapons in the Aegean-East Med fronts.
Is this new aspect of hunting down refugees, just another genocide in the making, perpetrated by lovers of the civility and humanitarianism of the Huns. We saw Turkey “neutralizing” (as is the phrase in vogue of the Turkish State) the Armenians, the Greeks of Asia Minor and the Black Sea, the Assyrians, and many others, finally turning on the Kurds whom they co-opted into the slaughter until they turned on them as well. Adolf Hitler, devout admirer of Kemal, said in 1939: “Who after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?” It was no aside, the Fuhrer knew exactly what he was talking about, and what he would model his wars and his holocaust after.
We posit that although the SAA offensive was a great success on a “theater-level” , it was also strategically important, as Turkey’s proxies faced with certain annihilation if Idlib is totally cut off, are already storming their employer’s borders to escape. In this case, Turkey, in reverence to a Mongol past, promoted by the AKP, will most probably sacrifice their former employees.
The modern Turkish state was founded on ethnic cleansing and genocide. Even during Ottoman times, the Turkish state used ethic groups as mercenaries, only to dispose of them once they outlived their usefulness. This is not lost on the populations of the Middle East who were under the Ottoman yoke for four centuries, and some even more.
So perhaps the Syrians, and everyone else with interests in the region should be very, very wary, and skeptical of anything Erdogan’s authoritarian Turkey, says, or promises.