Migratory flows to Greece: Closer to a nightmarish scenario

The fire in the Moria camp of Lesvos, which has claimed the lives of a mother and her baby and caused widespread incidents, confirms what we have been writing for a long time and is obvious to anyone who wants to see it: the camp is a powderkeg, which can explode from an accidental event. This has already happened repeatedly and happened once again because of the fire.


Whenever incidents occur for the most diverse reasons, the mob destroys what it finds in front of it. This time, in addition to installations, two fire trucks, which went to extinguish the fire, were also destroyed. In the past, the incidents have been mainly due to clashes between different groups of immigrants, which were quickly generalized and turned into a clash of immigrants with the police, which was trying to restore order.

This time the fire started inside the camp. Another fire that had appeared 20 minutes earlier had been extinguished in time. There is conflicting information as to whether the fire was caused by human error or was intended to blackmail the State into transporting migrants to mainland Greece.

Whatever happened, it is clear that the limits have been exceeded at all levels. Not only because 12,000 live in a camp for 3,000 people, but also because the climate is more than flammable. What is happening now in Moria, after all, is just another link in an already long chain.

It should be noted that in addition to Lesvos, such incidents have taken place in Chios, Samos, and elsewhere. It is obvious that more and more bloody links will be added to this chain over time.

The rise in flows

The influx of refugee migrants has inevitably further increased the thermometer in the camps, which has long been in the red. The recent transfer of refugee-migrants from the islands to mainland Greece has only briefly decongested the centers, but very quickly new arrivals have reproduced the problem.

In 2016, a case study was studied at the National Defense School, in which a clash on an island center resulted in clashes between ethnic groups with five wounded. Refugee detainees in the center break the fence and run off into the island, looting. The locals react by all means available, which transforms the intra-migrant conflicts into conflicts between Greeks and refugees/migrants.

We are not there at the moment, but police sources who have a picture of the situation say that it is not excluded that we will be led to such situations. Then it is likely that riot police will not be able to restore order, especially if the riots become grow and become widespread.

This is the scenario that the competent authorities are studying. But they have to be prepared to manage it. It is not inevitable, nor perhaps most likely, but it is possible.